LDCs are plagued by a myriad of exogenous shocks, including climate change and natural disasters, which disproportionately affect their economies and societies. These countries, especially low-income Small Island Developing States (SIDS), are most vulnerable to the physical effects of climate change despite having contributed the least to global warming (Guillaumont and Simonet, 2014). They are vulnerable because their economies depend mostly on agriculture, commodities and tourism. Unfortunately, these sectors are most at risk of natural disasters and the effects of climate change.
The economic and human devastation caused by natural disasters are predicted to grow in frequency and severity as a result of climate change, population growth and urbanisation. For example, rising sea levels may increase the risks of flooding, which will devastate or displace low-lying or coastal communities, while warmer sea surface temperatures may result in more powerful storms and cyclones. The increase in atmospheric temperature may similarly make droughts and wildfires more commonplace (US Geological Survey). Disaster events over the IPoA decade varied by country and geographic region, with some LDCs more adversely affected than others, compounded by other global economic exigencies (see Box 5). For these reasons, the IPoA sought to address “Multiple crises and other emerging challenges,” including economic shocks and climate change threats, by promoting environmental sustainability and disaster risk reduction. This chapter examines how natural disasters affect the development prospects of LDCs and those slated for graduation, and what support measures are necessary to improve their resilience.
7.1 Natural disasters in Commonwealth LDCs during the IPoA
Natural disasters have immediate adverse effects on lives and livelihoods in LDCs and can exacerbate their existing economic vulnerabilities. The United Nations defines natural disasters as “the consequence of events brought about by natural hazards which overwhelm the local response capacity of a country and seriously affects its social and economic development.” Natural disasters stem from a range of naturally occurring phenomena and are distinguished based on whether they are meteorological (e.g. hurricanes, cyclones, storms), climatological (drought, wildfires, extreme temperatures), hydrological (floods, landslides, avalanches), geophysical (earthquakes, volcanoes) or biological (epidemics, insect infestations). The far-ranging impacts were brought into sharp focus at the end of the IPoA with the emergence of COVID-19, a biological natural disaster that has caused significant social and economic damage in many LDCs and globally (see Chapter 5).
During the decade of the IPoA (2011-2020), Commonwealth LDCs were struck by over 200 natural disasters, mostly storms and floods (Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)).[1] Collectively, these disasters affected 76 million people, resulting in 11,087 deaths and economic losses of over US$4 billion. The occurrence of natural disasters negatively affected many of the other IPoA priorities discussed in this report. Indeed, the growing frequency and intensity of such natural disasters in the recent period threaten to reverse hard-won development gains in LDCs.
The structural challenges facing LDCs, as outlined in this report and including high levels of poverty, low growth with high debt and inadequate infrastructure, mean they are less able to adapt and build resilience to natural hazards. Many LDCs are geographically located in disaster-prone regions of Africa, Asia and the Pacific, while a growing share of their populations live in high-risk zones (i.e. low-lying areas or along tectonic plates). As a result of these underlying factors, LDCs account for a significant portion of the causalities from natural disasters. Moreover, the financial losses are much higher for countries in this income bracket: total economic losses from natural disasters, as a percentage of GDP, are reportedly three times higher in middle- to low-income countries than in higher-income countries (UNCTAD, 2021c).
Figure 44: Natural disasters in all Commonwealth LDCs, 2011-2020
Source: Commonwealth Secretariat (calculated using data from EM-DAT)
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Box 5: Vulnerability of Commonwealth LDCs to climate change and natural disasters African LDCs The nine African LDCs accounted for almost 70 per cent of all natural disasters that affected Commonwealth LDCs during the IPoA.[2] Collectively, the economic losses for these African members totalled more than US$4 billion for the IPoA years.[3] All countries experienced flooding, with Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda suffering as many as five floods per year. Epidemics are also common across Africa, with seven Commonwealth LDCs experiencing at least one epidemic.[4] During the decade, there were outbreaks of cholera, Ebola and measles, among others. With eight epidemics, Uganda was the most affected Commonwealth LDC. It is also worth noting the impact of droughts on LDCs in Africa.[5] The Gambia, Lesotho, Malawi and Mozambique experienced two or more droughts during the IPoA decade. Droughts have been particularly devastating in Lesotho, affecting on average close to 500,000 people, or a quarter of its population. Pacific LDCs Two of the four Commonwealth Pacific LDCs, Vanuatu and Solomon Islands, were ranked among the top 10 countries with the highest natural disaster risk, according to the World Risk Index[6] 2020. Vanuatu is the world’s most vulnerable country to natural hazards while Solomon Islands was ranked fifth (and Kiribati 18th). During the IPoA years, Pacific LDCs experienced a total of 28 natural disasters, with storms accounting for half of these. In addition, Pacific LDCs are exposed to geophysical disasters. In 2011-2020, there were two reported earthquakes, one resulting in a tsunami, and three cases of volcanic ash fall. The region’s predisposition to tsunamis and earthquakes is linked to its location along the Ring of Fire, an arc that stretches around the Pacific rim and along the boundaries of tectonic plates. It accounts for 90 per cent of the world's earthquakes (The Guardian, 2013). Collectively, the economic losses for the Pacific LDCs totalled more than US$80 million for the IPoA years.[7] Asian LDCs Bangladesh is ranked as the seventh most vulnerable country to climate change, as per the Global Climate Risk Index 2020. Bangladesh experienced 47 natural disasters during the IPoA period. Storms were the most frequent, followed by floods. The country is extremely vulnerable to flooding because more than 80 per cent of the land area is barely a metre or less above sea level. Tropical cyclones in Bangladesh are almost always accompanied by flooding. Cyclone Ampham in 2020 was one of the strongest recorded in the Bay of Bengal, flooding several districts, destroying infrastructure and claiming lives. Although not typical weather associated with climate change, extreme temperatures, notably cold waves in 2011, 2012, 2018 and 2019, left many people hospitalised from cold-related illnesses such as influenza, dehydration and pneumonia. Source: Commonwealth Secretariat using various sources |
7.2 Impact of natural disasters
Natural disasters can adversely affect the development prospects of LDCs and those graduating from this category in several ways. Recurrent disasters may also have contributed to the failure to achieve several of the IPoA targets (Table 22).
First, natural disasters in general affect a country’s economic growth (Lee et al., 2018; Cavallo et al., 2021). Disaster-induced economic losses can wipe out the small development gains achieved in recent years. In 2015, Tropical Cyclone Pam caused such devastation in the Pacific that Vanuatu’s graduation was delayed to December 2020. Frequent devastation caused by natural disasters disrupts LDCs’ long-term investments and diverts resources away from development to reconstruction. Post-disaster reconstruction activities can provide an economic stimulus. However, the debt sustainability of LDCs could be affected if external aid or domestic reserves are insufficient for this task.
Second, and related to the above point, there are implications for fiscal policy, as disasters could reduce revenues but increase expenditures. For example, tax collections may be lower in disaster-hit areas, food supply disruptions may trigger inflation, and emergency relief and reconstruction will require higher spending.
Third, natural disasters may destroy or temporarily close critical infrastructure – ports, roads, bridges, railways, electricity, telecoms – as well as buildings used to facilitate trade, such as warehouses, thus affecting business and communication and hindering LDCs’ ability to trade and engage meaningfully with the global economy. This may even hamper post-disaster humanitarian and recovery efforts, where food, emergency relief and construction materials must be imported from abroad.
Fourth, natural disasters could reduce a country’s productive capacity, already limited in many LDCs (see Chapter 2). This causes a direct loss to export earnings. For example, damage to land, crops and livestock and the destruction of assets and capital goods, from transport to hotels, can disrupt exports, weaken external balances and reduce foreign exchange (Lee et al., 2018). Moreover, invasive pests and diseases spread during hurricanes and cyclones, which can greatly harm future agricultural exports. Domestic food security can also be compromised if natural disasters like droughts or storms directly affect agricultural yields (see Box 6).
Table 22: Examples of the impact of natural disasters on Commonwealth LDCs
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IPoA target |
Examples |
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Sustained, equitable and inclusive economic growth |
In Vanuatu, Cyclone Pam destroyed about 60 per cent of GDP, decreased GDP growth by about 2 per cent, increased the fiscal deficit by 9.6 per cent and increased the trade deficit to 34.8 per cent (Lee et al., 2018). |
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Infrastructure |
In Mozambique, Cyclone Idai in 2019 caused estimated capital damages of US$327 million (buildings) and $188 million (infrastructure) (World Bank, 2019). In Bangladesh, the prolonged monsoon rain in 2020 resulted in severe flooding, inundating 37 per cent of the country’s total land area, causing major damage and affecting 5.4 million people. There was damage to houses and other infrastructure, clean water, hygiene and sanitation facilities, and access to livelihoods in most of the affected districts. |
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Trade |
Cyclone Idai disrupted transportation on the Beira trade corridor, one of Southern Africa’s main routes linking Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Democratic Republic of Congo and Mozambique to the port of Beira on the Indian Ocean, which significantly affected trade flows within the region. |
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Productive capacity
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In Mozambique, Cyclone Idai destroyed around 800,000 hectares of crops, including for local consumption and exports (World Bank, 2019). In Malawi, there was also huge destruction of agricultural crops and livestock; by one estimate, 50 per cent of the flooded area’s crops, chiefly maize and rice, may have been lost (MSF, 2019). In Lesotho, drought in 2019 resulted in a 60 per cent decline in cereal production, leaving nearly half of the population facing severe hunger. |
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Box 6: Climate-induced water and food insecurity Food security is a growing concern globally. In 2019, some 2 billion people were reported to suffer severe food insecurity. This number is likely to increase as climate-induced food shortages threaten to expose millions more to hunger and water deprivation (UNCTAD, 2021c). Food security consists of four interconnected pillars: food availability (how much is produced), food access (if people can afford food), food use (how food is prepared and consumed) and stability (how stable the food supply and consumption is). All four pillars are affected by climate stressors. Increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and greater frequency of some extreme weather events have already started affecting crop yields (food availability and stability), which in turn triggers sharp increases in agricultural prices and affects food access and use. Climate change has negatively affected the yields of some crops (e.g. maize and wheat) in lower-latitude regions whereas similar crops in higher-latitude regions have seen positive impacts. The negative impacts are especially strong in drylands, particularly those in Africa and the high mountainous regions of Asia and South America. LDCs in these regions are disproportionately affected as the vast majority are dependent on agriculture to sustain their economies. As noted earlier in this report, more than half of the people living Commonwealth LDCs faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2019, up from 46 per cent in 2014 (ibid.). Source: Commonwealth Secretariat |
7.3 Strengthening disaster risk management and resilience in Commonwealth LDCs
Reducing vulnerability to economic, natural and environmental shocks and disasters, as well as climate change, and strengthening resilience to meet these and other challenges are key to LDCs’ development prospects.
To tackle climate change, the IPoA called for LDCs to implement national adaptation plans and for development partners to facilitate technology transfer and disburse funds for adaptation, among other things. To reduce and manage disaster risks, the IPoA called for LDCs to implement measures in line with the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-2015) and its successor, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030), and to promote coherence between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies and programmes. In turn, development partners were to provide financial and technical assistance to LDCs to support their disaster risk reduction, emergency preparedness and post-disaster reconstruction efforts. However, unlike some of the other actions discussed in this report, these recommendations on climate change and disaster risk reduction do not contain monitoring indicators or targets.
As LDCs seek to strengthen their disaster management and build resilience, they can benefit from the greater attention being given to the nexus between trade and natural disasters, and how the multilateral trading system can better support disaster response, recovery and resilience. The multilateral trading system can support disaster-hit LDCs through existing flexibility under the WTO Agreements, speedy customs and regulatory clearance for relief goods and supplies, and access to various international support measures, such as the WTO’s EIF. Aid for Trade should be used to build robust trade-related infrastructure and enhance productive capacity, which will contribute to greater resilience in the wake of disasters. Increasing disaster resilience has benefits for LDCs’ capacity to trade.
Commonwealth LDCs require financial and technical assistance to enhance their disaster risk management and build resilience to future shocks. This need is even more acute given the increased pressure on public finances the COVID-19 pandemic has generated (see Chapter 5). Development partners should ensure the LDCF is adequately resourced and replenished, because it fills a critical niche in financing the climate adaptation efforts of these countries. It is also important to reduce the administrative burden and make climate financing more accessible (Gay, 2020). From October 2015 through September 2019, the LDCF had 280 projects approved, with US$1.4 billion in LDCF financing and $6.2 billion in co-financing (Independent Evaluation Office, 2021). The Fund is active in sectors including water, agriculture and food security, health, disaster risk management and prevention, infrastructure and fragile ecosystems and has the largest portfolio adaptation projects of its kind. Access to financing facilities to fight climate change remains critical for graduated countries as they continue to be extremely vulnerable to its adverse effects.
LDCs and graduating and graduated countries need support to mobilise public and private investment, especially in green production, which can help mitigate the effects of climate change and reduce environmental degradation. The GCF and the Climate Investment Platform initiative can play an important role in this respect.
Moreover, the transition to net zero and the development of green technologies, from ICT to electric vehicles, is raising demand for rare earth metals and commodities mined in some LDCs. Development partners and the private sector should support these countries to identify and implement solutions for improved mining practices, a just transition towards a low-carbon economy and structural economic transformation (see Chapter 2).
Climate-related technology can also be transferred through the Clean Development Mechanism, which allows developed countries to meet their emission reduction obligations by financing projects in developing countries using technologies not readily available in the host countries. South-South co-operation should be encouraged to share knowledge and experience in mitigation, and especially adaptation, with LDCs. Co-operation in renewable energy can be strengthened through technical assistance, technology transfer, trade and investment (Gay, 2020).
A deeper market for catastrophe insurance could play a valuable role by helping LDCs raise money on capital markets and buffer the worst of a calamity (Cavallo et al., 2021). These countries could leverage the Commonwealth Disaster Risk Finance Portal, which provides a one-stop-shop for disaster risk finance instruments. This web-based toolkit brings together all the financial instruments offered by regional development banks, multilateral financial institutions and other disaster finance providers. The portal allows resource-constrained governments to easily find a range of tools they may want to include in their disaster risk finance portfolio – from concessional loans, to grants and insurance products – by looking at those that are specifically available to them.
Given the growing incidence of natural hazards and catastrophes worldwide because of climate change, population growth and urbanisation, further work is needed to promote a virtuous cycle between trade policies, social protection policies, resilience-building and disaster risk management, especially in LDCs.
[1] Floods accounted for 47 per cent of these emergencies, followed by storms at 22 per cent (Figure 44). Storms and floods were also responsible for 4,027 of the 11,087 reported deaths by natural disasters over the period. According to EM-DAT, the recorded economic damage from storms, across all countries, totalled US$1,390 billion, whereas that from floods totalled $651 billion.
[2] A total of 162 natural disasters affected Commonwealth LDCs in Africa in 2011-2020, of which 57 per cent were floods, 14 per cent were epidemics, 11 per cent were storms and 8 per cent were droughts. The remaining disasters were earthquakes, wildfires, insect infestations and landslides.
[3] No data is available for Lesotho
[4] The emergence and spread of infectious diseases are attributable to several factors, including microbial adaptation and change; human susceptibility to infection, climate and weather; international travel and commerce; breakdown of public health measures; and poverty and social inequality (Fenollar and Mediannikov, 2018). Many of these factors are overrepresented in African LDCs, hence the regular occurrence of epidemics in these countries.
[5] Droughts occur mainly in the Eastern, Southern and Sahel regions of Africa and are typically associated with El Niño, which moves heat between the atmosphere and the ocean, causing variations in global average surface temperatures. El Niños occur every two to seven years on average.
[6] The World Risk Index is a statistical model for assessing the global risk of disasters that arise directly from extreme natural events such as earthquakes, storms, floods, droughts or sea level rise. It is based on the notion that disaster risk is particularly high where extreme natural events hit vulnerable societies. The World Risk Index provides a disaster risk assessment for 181 countries worldwide.
[7] No data is available for Tuvalu.